AdWords Keyword Tool: Is It Accurate?

My Inbox was flooded with messages from all the newsletters I subscribe to, announcing the revolution. One of the marketing gurus went so far as to conclude: "it probably spells the end for services like Wordtracker." Another guru couldn't curb his enthusiasm: "Holy cow! Talk about shaking up the planet!"

Jim Morris, a keyword research authority, posted the following on his nichbot.com blog: "All of a sudden - there is no longer any confusion about how many times people are searching for a certain keyword phrase on Google.com."

Jim Morris also published a screenshot of the 8 first results he got when he searched for keywords suggestions for "blogging" on AdWords Keyword Tool. The keywords are: blogging, blogs, blog, blogging software, radio blog, pink is the new blog, blog search, bad girls blog; then it shows 3 columns: Advertiser Competition, Approx Search Volume for last month, and Approx Average Search Volume.

Until July 2008, all three columns used to show a shaded bar, which was supposed to indicate the relative volumes, i.e. if the bar was completely green it supposedly indicated very high volume; half green equaled moderate volume etc. But now, the two search volume columns show actual numerical figures, while the first column, Advertiser Competition, still shows this shaded bar.

I went through the suggestions Jim Morris got for "blogging" and checked a couple of them. For instance, the Advertiser Competition bar next to "radio blog" is painted 3/4 green. Looks like quite a lot of bidders on this keyword, doesn't it? One expects to find a lot of ads when "radio blog" is searched. Well, not necessarily. There is not even one ad for "radio blog" (at least there were none on 7/8/2008, when the blog was published and I conducted my search). Not in the U.S. nor in the UK or Canada.

Same is true for "bad girls blog." The mystery bar is half green, which might indicate moderate competition (Actually, nobody knows what it really indicates. Why doesn't Google tell us the exact number of bidders on a certain keyword? What's the big secret?) Anyway, one would expect at least some competition when Google paints the bar half green, right? Wrong again! Not even one ad in all the English speaking countries (I confess I didn't try India).

You may ask "what is the problem? Don't use Google if you don't like it." Well, the problem is that Google is not just a search engine. Google charged its advertisers over 16 billion dollars last year alone, and an advertiser must rely on the data Google provides him or her in order to set up a good campaign. If these data are extremely inaccurate, there is a good chance most AdWords advertisers are spending their money in vain.